Description
While most of the recent attention on the U.S. central bank has been focused on whether policymakers will succeed in reducing prices without dragging the economy into a recession, there is another major consequence of higher interest rates: Potential damage to the U.S. government's finances.
That is because as interest rates rise, so too will the federal government's borrowing costs on its $30.89 trillion in debt.
Interest payments on the national debt are already projected to be the fastest-growing part of the federal budget in fiscal year 2022, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Payments are expected to "triple" from nearly $400 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a stunning $1.2 trillion in 2032 – a total of $8.1 trillion over the next decade.
As a share of the economy, total interest on the national debt will hit a record 3.3% of GDP, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the country, by 2032, the CBO estimated.
In reality, the payments could be even steeper; current interest rates are already higher than those included in the CBO estimate from May, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that advocates for reducing the federal debt.
Fed policymakers have already approved four consecutive rate hikes this year – including two mega-sized 75-basis-point increases in June and July – and have signaled they are nowhere close to stopping as they try to crush runaway inflation. The central bank is widely expected to approve another three-quarter percentage point hike at its meeting next week, or even vote to lift rates by a historic full-percentage point.
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