The only hope to keep the lie going, REDEFINE EVERYTHING

Crossville TN

Description

Findings from the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) shows that 72% of economists expect an economic downturn by the middle of next year — or think the economy is already in one. About 20% of respondents said they believe the economy is already in a recession. Another 20% do not expect a downturn to start before the second half of next year. "Survey results reflect many split opinions among the panelists," NABE President David Altig said in a statement. "This by itself suggests there is "less clarity than usual" (WHY? POLITICS?) about the outlook." There is a growing consensus on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will trigger a recession as it battles inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes. Policymakers approved the second consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike in July and have indicated that another supersized rate hike is on the table in September, depending on forthcoming economic data. Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the country, already fell for two straight quarters, with the economy shrinking by 1.6% from January to March and falling by another 0.9% in the period from April to June. Recessions are "technically defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth" and are characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, falling income and slowing retail sales, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which tracks downturns. The decline in economic growth in the second quarter meets the technical, "but unofficial" (re-define), criteria for a recession, which requires a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." Still, the NBER — the semi-official arbiter — may not confirm it immediately as it typically waits up to a year to call it. * At some point, people we hope see the truth. In order for inflation to be under control, the Fed has to raise unemployment to 10%. We are well on our way with many businesses' announcing hiring freeze or layoffs. Fasten your seat belt, 2 more years of misery and we are nowhere near the worst. Plan accordingly.