NY Voters Sour On Bail Reform Amid Crime Spike, Poll Finds

New York City NY

29 March, 2022

11:21 AM

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NEW YORK CITY — A growing movement to tweak New York's bail reforms could have the support of voters increasingly unhappy with the law, according to a new poll. Voters, by a 56-30 percent margin, said the bail reform law has been bad for the state, a Siena College poll found. And a majority of voters — 64 percent — told pollsters that they believed the law resulted in an increase in crime. "Nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers – including at least 60% of Republicans, independents, voters from every region, and white and Latino voters, as well as majorities of Democratic and Black voters – say the bail law has resulted in an increase in crime," said Steven Greenberg, a pollster with Siena College. "And an overwhelming majority of New Yorkers, including at least 72% of voters of every party, region and race, say the law should be amended to give judges more discretion to set bail." The poll comes amid a last-minute push by Gov. Kathy Hochul to add tweaks to the bail law in the state budget. Advocates and several prominent New York City politicians have cried foul over Hochul's proposed changes. They argue that evidence shows the bail reforms — which broadly restrict setting bail on lower-level charges — aren't tied to an increase in crime, especially in the city. Those arguments were encapsulated in a recent study by city Comptroller Brad Lander, who declared there's "no evidence" rolling back bail reforms would reduce crime. "Further rollbacks to the bail reforms passed in 2019 would primarily serve to extract more money from vulnerable communities and increase the number of people held in City jails awaiting trial," his study stated. "There is no evidence that they would lead to a reduction in crime." Shortly after the Siena poll was released, advocates doubled down on their data-backed argument that bail reforms didn't cause a rise in crime. Hochul needs to "follow the facts and advance evidence-based solutions for community safety," said Marvin Mayfield, director of organizing at Center for Community Alternatives. "This poll is clear and convincing evidence that New Yorkers have been utterly misled about bail reform," Mayfield said in a statement. "All available data is clear that bail reform did not cause a rise in crime. In fact, it has spared countless New Yorkers the trauma and destabilization of pre-trial jailing, improving community safety." But negative public perception over the reforms could carry more weight as the Democratic gubernatorial primary nears. Hochul carries a commanding lead over her rivals Jumaane Williams, the city's public advocate, and Rep. Tom Suozzi, according to the Siena College poll. But her top-of-the-pack position narrows significantly if former Gov. Andrew Cuomo enters the race, the poll found. Cuomo would trail Hochul by only 8 points, even if the majority of New Yorkers don't want him to run, the poll found. " More than half of Democrats don't want Cuomo to run for governor this year and only one-third say he should run in the primary," Greenberg said. "Despite all that, Cuomo would be very much in the game – if he decides to put himself in the game." Read the full Siena College poll here.