What The Phillies Must Do To Make The Postseason

King of Prussia PA

16 September, 2020

2:11 PM

Description

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The last time the Phillies played in the postseason, they were led by a roster of Philadelphia legends, many of whom were honored in ceremonies at the park in South Philadelphia last summer. The year was 2011. The Phillies were the best team in baseball that year, even though they fell in the opening round of the playoffs. They were at the tail end of the most dominant stretch in franchise history, but no one thought so then. Nine years have passed, and they haven't been truly close to returning to October baseball ever since. Until now. With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Phillies sit at 24-23, still holding onto a playoff position despite a tough series against the upstart Miami Marlins last week in which they lost five of seven games. Because the 2020 MLB season didn't start until July, there are only 60 games on the regular season schedule. And the playoff format is expanded: eight teams from each league will make the postseason, instead of the usual five. But even if the playoff field were just five teams, the Phillies would still be right in the thick of things in the season's final days. Playoff positioning The losses to the Marlins dropped the Phillies out of second place in the National League East, and bumped them from the fifth seed in the playoffs to the seventh seed. But strangely enough, that would probably be a good thing: as the seventh seed, the Phillies would play the Chicago Cubs or the Atlanta Braves in the opening best of three Wild Card round. But as the fifth seed, they'd be matched up against the fourth-seeded San Diego Padres, one of baseball's hottest teams. The Padres have a superior record to the Braves and Cubs — and have looked more dominant than either — but have the lower seed because they are second in their division to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because MLB has decided to seed based on division winners and not overall record, the sixth and seventh seeds will likely have a more enviable opening round matchup than the fifth seed. Schedule and Wild Card race Yet there are no guarantees. The Phillies trail the Marlins by just half a game for that fifth slot. But they're also being pursued by a pack of five teams that have not given up, and are still within striking distance: the Giants, Reds, Rockies, Brewers, and Mets. They'll need to at least maintain a .500 record the rest of the way to lock in a playoff spot. Here's what the remainder of their schedule looks like: Two vs. Mets, Sept. 16-17Four vs. Blue Jays, Sept. 18-20 (includes double header)Four vs. Nationals, Sept. 21-23 (includes double header)Three vs. Rays, Sept. 25-27 Rotation depth The Phillies were stung by the loss of rookie Spencer Howard last week with shoulder discomfort. While Howard has not yet been quite as dominant as scouts believe he can be, he's strung together enough positive outings and kept the Phillies in enough games that he's seen as an important piece moving forward. It's unknown when he'll return. To make matters worse, number three starter Jake Arrieta appeared to pull his hamstring at the end of a strong outing against the Mets on Tuesday night. The team has not yet elaborated on his condition, but it seems highly likely he'll at least miss a few starts. To replace Howard and Arrieta, the Phillies will lean on Vince Velasquez as a full time starter. Velasquez has been erratic this year, pitching to a 6.46 ERA through five starts and two bullpen appearances. Yet he's also shown flashes of the dominance that accompanied him when he debuted with the Phillies in 2016. Beyond Velasquez, the Phillies have no clear answer as to who will fill their last empty rotation spot. Largely untested options with starting experience on the active roster include bullpen pieces like Cole Irvin, Ramon Rasso, and Ranger Suarez. The team could opt to utilize bullpen games, as it has already done several times this year. The season could ride on the success of these experiments. The good news? In a short playoff series, no team in baseball offers a better 1-2 punch than the Phillies aces, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Both are putting up Cy Young-caliber years. More injuries and the $330 million man At the start of the season, Phillies superstar Bryce Harper was responsible for the bulk of the Phillies offense, putting up MVP numbers for the opening month. He's since fallen into a slump, but the team still thrived on the backs of other hot streaks, namely first baseman Rhys Hoskins. However, Hoskins has now hit the disabled list, and catcher JT Realmuto has missed several games as well. Though Realmuto is expected back shortly, the Phillies offense is not quite as dominant as it was as a whole a few weeks ago. A few big swings from Bryce could be all the Phils need to stay afloat until they're at full strength again. The Phillies battle the Mets Wednesday night, with former Met Wheeler taking the mound against Cy Young favorite Jacob DeGrom.