University Of Missouri-St. Louis: Ask An Expert: David Kimball And Anita Manion Discuss Process And Importance Of Redistricting

Hazelwood MO

17 February, 2022

4:45 AM

Description

Press release from the University of Missouri-St. Louis: February 7, 2022 The lines of political battle are literally changing across the country as states go through the process of redistricting, as happens each decade. This week, the Missouri Legislature is expected to debate a proposed redistricting map that will likely maintain the current 6-2 ratio of Republican to Democratic controlled seats from the state in the U.S. House of Representatives. Redistricting processes can also impact the composition of the state legislature itself as well as local governments. The City of St. Louis, for example, is preparing to adopt new ward maps that will shrink the number of members of the Board of Alderman from 28 to 14. These changes in representation can't help but impact the policies that get enacted by elected bodies at every level of government. In the latest installment of its Ask an Expert series, UMSL Daily spoke to University of Missouri–St. Louis political scientists David Kimball and Anita Manion about the process and what it portends. Why are states undergoing redistricting? Anita Manion: I would like to step back from redistricting for one second and say that it is based on the U.S. Census. We have low response rates sometimes, and so I'm highlighting to folks who are reading this the importance of responding to the census because that's how redistricting is determined. That's the first critical piece. If we talk about the federal level, there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives. The number of seats doesn't change. As population shifts, we reallocate those seats based on gains or losses. In the 2020 census, Missouri had population growth of 2.8%, but that was a lot less than the national growth. We were lucky that we were able to maintain our congressional seats. We didn't lose a seat like we did after the previous census in 2010. But we did fall to the 19th largest state and Illinois fell to the sixth largest. There are different ways to do redistricting. In Missouri, the legislature oversees the process. Other places have independent commissions that do this. Which is more common? David Kimball: A majority of states are like Missouri in having the legislature redraw district boundaries. That's been a controversial practice because often the members of the state legislature who are drawing the congressional district boundaries are interested in running for office in one of those new districts. They have an incentive, therefore, to draw new boundaries that make it easier for them to win. There's an opportunity for them to draw districts that favor their own political self-interest rather than the interests of the broader constituents. That's why some states have adopted a commission outside the legislature to draw district boundaries with the thought that might be a little bit less open to political influence. Or at least it would be somebody drawing the districts that doesn't have a vested political interest in the outcome. The process of redrawing districts for political benefit is not something new. Gerrymandering, the origins of the word itself, go back more than 200 years. What has changed that makes people see it as a bigger problem today? AM: You're certainly right that politicians and political parties are always going to use the rules how they can to gain an advantage. That's not new. But what is new is the level of technology that allows them to, at a granular level, identify and determine who they want in which districts. There's also a trend with more and more liberals or Democrats tending to move to more urban areas, and more conservatives or Republicans being more spread out in rural areas. That can actually, in this era, benefit the Republican Party because it's hard to divide those more liberal or Democratic voters into more districts if they're all clustered together. The Republican Party, frankly, has been pretty savvy – really bolstered in 2010 – in focusing on getting control of state legislatures. Because if you do that, then you control the redistricting process. You can look at a state like Missouri. We think we're going to have the same allocation of six Republican seats and two Democratic seats in the House of Representatives. But if you look at the vote share in the 2020 presidential election, you have about 57%, Republican and about 41% Democrat in Missouri. DK: For congressional districts and state legislative districts, one concern is the partisan fairness of the maps, and a contributing factor is that voters today are more loyal to one particular party than they used to be a few decades ago. Fewer voters split their tickets between multiple parties when they cast their votes, and there's much more data available now about the voting behavior of people down to the block level, so the people drawing the new district boundaries can be very confident that if they draw a district that's, say, 60% Democratic, it's probably going to remain that way for the next 10 years until it's time to do another set of redistricting. DK: In Missouri, it looks like the legislature is going to draw a map that retains the Republicans 6-2 advantage in Congressional seats, but there had been some talk of drawing at map that would give the Republican Party a chance to add a seventh seat. Why does that idea not seem to be winning out? In Missouri, it looks like the legislature is going to draw a map that retains the Republicans 6-2 advantage in Congressional seats, but there had been some talk of drawing at map that would give the Republican Party a chance to add a seventh seat. Why does that idea not seem to be winning out? AM: When they draw these maps, it's to a party's advantage to make those districts noncompetitive, so a solidly Democratic or solidly Republican district. That's what the Republicans in Missouri have right now with the 6-2 map. If they keep that, they basically know those six seats are safe. That noncompetitiveness isn't necessarily great for more centrist voters or for equal representation because what it does, if the district is solidly Republican or celebrate Democrat, is make the real race as the primary. You're going to get candidates going to the left or to the right to win the primary race in those districts, rather than having a general election where people go more to the center. But if the Republicans go with a 7-1 map, carving up the Kansas City area, it means you're getting some more Democrats into those other districts and can make those more competitive and less solidly Republican. AM: DK: The increasing nationalization of politics is also contributing to these discussions. In the past, states largely did redistricting on their own, maybe without paying so much attention to what was happening in other states. But now some in the Republican Party in the Missouri Legislature are wondering, "Do we draw a 7-1 map so that nationally we have as many Republican districts as possible?" DK: What does it look like is going to happen nationally with Republicans controlling so much of the redistricting process in so many of these states? How much of an advantage does it look like the party will gain? What does it look like is going to happen nationally with Republicans controlling so much of the redistricting process in so many of these states? How much of an advantage does it look like the party will gain? DK: AM: When do states have to finish this process? DK: There's a new ward map being voted on in the city of St. Louis that cuts the number of wards from 28 to 14. What do people see as the benefits of wards and fewer representatives on the on the Board of Aldermen? DK: AM: In how many cases will that lead to current board members running against each other for seats? AM: DK: How important does redistricting ultimately become in the people that we elect and the policies that get enacted? AM: This press release was produced by the University of Missouri-St. Louis. The views expressed here are the author's own.