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My guess is it won’t be full invasion as step 1 (could be wrong…).
Probably keep up propaganda war, airspace violations and the like.
If Taiwan won’t come to the bargaining table escalate-
Full scale war games
If Taiwan won’t..—
Air Embargo
If Taiwan won’t—
Air and ocean embargo
If Taiwan won’t—-
Air blockade then later ocean
If Taiwan won’t—-
Some shelling, a few missile strikes
If Taiwan won’t—
At about the blockade stage China will start looking for excuse for military action such as Taiwan shooting down aircraft. They then would invade with that excuse. Of course if it gets to full blockade something would have to happen as Taiwan would be starved out eventually.
My guess is Sleepy Joe will react with cowardice and a false show of strength maybe with some bravado trade restrictions etc. His sons art work may fetch the Chinese a very handsome reward.
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