COVID Tracker: Vaccine Virus Standoff

San Francisco CA

26 August, 2021

4:50 PM

Description

By Mark Rabine, Mission Local August 25, 2021 Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid 19 data dump. The recent standoff between The Virus and The Vaccine in San Francisco continues, with no big advances for either side. Unfortunately what we know is mostly what we don't know. The antiquated, defunded and ignored the national public health patchwork (let's not call it a "system") continues to leave the nation mainly flying blind when it comes to how well The Vaccine (and which vaccine) is working against the Delta variant. A new study (preprint) indicates, as have many before, that The Vaccine provides long term immunity against symptomatic disease and hospitalization. And though often conflated, remember there is a difference between an infection and getting sick. As there is a difference between business and health care. "It makes it hard to run a business that is financially successful if you're altruistic," says one former nonprofit hospital CEO. In the name of protecting hospitals, we have accepted all kinds restrictions. Yet, according to a Kaiser Health Network analysis of IRS filings: "[t]ogether, nonprofit hospital systems held more than $283 billion in stocks, hedge funds, private equity, venture funds and other investment assets in 2019, the analysis found. Of that, nonprofit hospitals classified only $19 billion, or 7%, of their total investments as principally devoted to their nonprofit missions rather than producing income." (emphasis added) Let's hear it for the Board of Education. It took a while for them to figure it out, but school classrooms will soon be outfitted with air purifiers. When? "As soon as possible". For those interested, the SFUSD provides a dashboard on testing and positivity among students and staff. As of August 16, there were 93 positive tests reported out of 62,800 tests collected. On the good news front, new preprint research finds children who contract Covid usually have milder symptoms and recover faster than adults. Finally for those who may have thought the anti-parasite drug Invermectin might help against Covid, think again (before it's too late). Scroll down for today's Covid numbers. The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. The Delta surge has yet to provoke a vaccination surge in SF. As of August 24, DPH reports over 78 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 72 percent are completely vaccinated. On August 24, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 605. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page. On August 21, DPH reports there were 117 hospitalizations, 77 in Acute Care, 40 in ICU. The latest update from DPH says 45 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 10.9 per 1000 compared to 79.3 per 1000 for those not fully vaccinated) . According to the CDC , for the 7 days ending August 22, there were 82 new admissions to SF hospitals, a 9.89 percent decrease over the prior seven days. Again, relying on CDC data (as SFDPH no longer bothers), for the week ending August 22 Covid patients accounted for 6 percent of hospital beds (no change) and 13.77 percent of ICU beds (no change). The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 19 Covid patients and 79 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 17 Covid patients and 76 percent ICU occupancy. Of 122 reported Covid patients, 58 were at either SFGH or UCSF. Between June 21 and August 20, DPH reported 680 new cases among Mission residents (or 116 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 760 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point (200 new cases per 10,000 residents). During this period only the Mission and Bayview Hunters Point had more than 600 new cases. Six other neighborhoods had more than 300 new cases including the Castro, SOMA, Western Addition, Tenderloin, Excelsior and Sunset/Parkside. The Castro continues to have the second highest rate at 168 new cases per 10,000 residents. Fifteen neighborhoods have rates over 100 per 10,000 residents. Seacliff had 9 new cases. For the week ending August 15, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 170 new cases, or approximately 19 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 896,000 population). As of August 20, White San Franciscans had 35.1 percent of August positive tests, Latinx 22.1 percent, Asians 16.5 percent, Blacks 11.5 percent, Multi-racials 1.5 percent, Pacific Islanders 1.7 percent, and Native Americans had .3 percent of positive tests collected so far in August . Between June 18 and August 20, DPH reports the positivity rate in the Mission was 4.6 percent. In Bayview Hunters Point the positivity rate was 6.9 percent. The Castro had a positivity rate of 5.4 percent while Seacliff and Glen Park had positivity rates approximately 2 percent. Deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to ascertain. Now DPH reports 10 more Covid-bringing the total Covid-related death toll to 581. DPH provides no demographic data for monthly deaths. DPH also asserts 2 of the August Covid-related deaths were those fully vaccinated. The relative standoff between The Virus and the Vaccine is reflected in the R Number. Covid R Estimation has lowered its San Francisco R Number slightly below 1 to .98 and its estimate for the California R number to 1.18. Most models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1 with an average of .83, while the average California R Number is 1.03. As of August 20, DPH reports 78 positive tests among the unhoused. There have been a total of 6 unhoused Covid-related deaths. Mission Local covers San Francisco from the vantage point of the Mission, a neighborhood with all of the promise and problems of a major city. You can support Mission Local here.