COVID Tracker: New Hospitalizations Slow Down

San Francisco CA

11 August, 2021

11:13 AM

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By Mark Rabine, Mission Local August 9, 2021 Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid 19 data dump. Covid is at once global and hyperlocal, with different numbers reflecting different local conditions and responses to the virus. Many thought the UK experience — high cases, low hospitalizaitons — would be replicated in the US, especially in pockets like SF with relatively high vaccintaions rates. For the first couple weeks of the Delta surge here, with high case numgers and high hospitalization numbers, it didn't look good. But in the past week, even with cases advancing, there is been a pronounced slowing of local hospitalizations. Over the week ending August 8, hospitalizations rose from 93 to 105, before falling back to 97. With most of the population vaccinated, especially those most vulnerable, local officials and experts have remained relatively calm, and are not planning a new wave of lockdowns. For those interested, see here for current numbers from the UK. Does that mean a full reopening of the City's public schools will happen as planned? Though no one can predict the virus is thinking, or Board of Education, a recent study of infection and transmission among children in the UK can be taken as a positive sign. During the Delta surge it's become sport to blame Republicans and anti-Big Pharma dogmatists for stumbling vaccination rates. But who isn't getting vaccinated? Are you surprised to learn it's our essential(ly) screwed workers? Although businesses are mandating vaccination for customers, many don't mandate the same for workers and make it difficult by refusing to give paid leave or time off to get the shot. A new study has found that with the Delta variant, Covid misinformation is spreading twice as fast as original Covid misinformation. Unfortunately, the CDC has been part of the problem at least as much as part of the solution. In the wake of their new masking guidance based on an experience in Provincetown MA, the CDC generated a great deal of concern and anxiety regarding transmission from people who were vaccinated and asymptomatic. Intead of P-town, they should have looked at a study from Singapore where a study based on real contact tracing shows asymptomatic transmission to be very rare (the visualization in the study is quite good). Imagine what we might learn if we had a serious, functioning contact tracing program in SF. Scroll down for today's Covid numbers. The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of August 8, it does not appear that Delta has provoked a wave of new vaccinations in the City. According to DPH, over 77 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 70 percent are completely vaccinated. On August 8, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 569. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page. On August 5, DPH reports there were 95 hospitalizations, 65 in Acute Care, 32 in ICU. According to the CDC, for the 7 days ending August 7, there were 69 new admissions to SF hospitals, a 1.43 percent decrease over the prior seven days. Covid patients account for 5.21 percent of hospital beds (up 1.39 percent) and 10.82 percent of ICU beds (up 2.91 percent). The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 15 Covid patients and 81 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 8 Covid patients and 74 percent ICU occupancy. Of 71 reported Covid patients, 43 were at either SFGH or UCSF. Between June 5 and August 4, DPH reported 435 new cases among Mission residents (or 74 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 496 newcases in Bayview Hunters Point (131 cases per 10,000 residents). Other than Bayview Hunters Point, 3 other neighborhoods had case rates in excess of 100 per 10,000 residents including the Castro (104), SOMA (102) and Western Addition (100). Early indications suggest we may be seeing a tapering of the rise in case numbers. For the week ending August 1, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City rose to 267 new cases, or approximately 30.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 881,000). As of August 8, DPH estimates 90 percent of the local Pacific Islander population has received at lease one dose of the vaccine, Native Americans 86 percent, Asians 79 percent, Latinx 75 percent, Whites 66 percent, and an estimated 63 percent of the local Black population has received at least one dose.. Between June 5 and August 4, DPH recorded 14,307 Covid tests collected in the Mission (or 243 tests per 1000 residents) the second highest number of neighborhood tests in the City. The highest number was 16,307 collected from Sunset/Parkside. Over these 60 days, FiDi/South Beach had the highest testing rate at 375 tests per 1000 residents. The number of Covid deaths in July remains 9. R Number models suggest the virus, though still prevalent, may be waning. The ensemble estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.04 (the lowest its been since June 16) and the California R Number at 1.2. Don't start celebrating just yet. Covid R Estimation continues to tell a more worrisome story estimating the current R Number for San Francisco at 1.44, and California at 1.36. DPH reports 93 percent of San Franciscans 65 and older have received at least one dose of The Vaccine and 86 percent have been fully vaccinated. Mission Local covers San Francisco from the vantage point of the Mission, a neighborhood with all of the promise and problems of a major city. You can support Mission Local here.