COVID Tracker: 34,971 Cases, 463 Deaths

San Francisco CA

28 March, 2021

4:58 PM

Description

By Mark Rabine, Mission Local March 27, 2021 Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily COVID-19 data dump. Note: No Covid Tracker on Sunday. Although not showing up yet in San Francisco or the state yet, the widely expected "4th wave" based on the B117 variant is gaining strength around the country. Here is a thread from former CDC director Tom Frieden assessing the situation and the need for vaccine equity. UCSF's Dr. Monica Gandhi, a reliable optimist, explains why real world data is showing that the vaccines not only protect against severe illness but block transmission. It's all about immunioglobulins and antibodies. There's no better walking city than San Francisco. In a fabulous essay I wish I had written, Aife Murray tells us why. And then, there's the Planning Commission, who despite logic, public opposition and their own misgivings, voted to bring in The Creamery Cafe. Just what we needed. If you can break away from Dr. Gandhi's tweets on immunoglobulins, check out Todd Berman's sketches from Paseo Artistico and meet Dolores Park's DJ Cheese who knows you can't please all the people all the time. And for those who may have missed it, Joe dug into a whole lot of DPW emails and discovered (are you sitting down?), DPW allowed Recology to rip us off for years. While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today's Covid numbers. The California Immunization Registry data system continues to undercount vaccinations. As of March 26, over 43 percent (326,904) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while 22 percent (170,218) had received two. On March 26, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 9,120.6 . The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page. If you're into uncertainty, you'll love today's R Number reports. Despite very low case rates, positivity rates and hospitalizations, note San Francisco's steep rise on the graph. Always tending toward the high side of things, Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at a disturbing .97 (in a range from .78 to 1.15). Meanwhile the ensemble (eight models) estimate San Francisco's R Number falls in a range from .63 to 1.02 with an average of .78. Most models agree that California's R Number remains around .8 (except for one which estimates it at .43). What can I say other than R Number estimation is not an exact science. If you think you're living in the City's Covid central, here are some numbers to to back you up. Between February 23 and March 24, DPH added 112 new cases to the Mission or a rate of 18.8 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for that month was 12.25 new cases per 10,000 residents. Other than Tenderloin and Bayview Hunters Point (both with 78) and Sunset/Parkside (61) no other neighborhood had more than 47 new cases. Expect pushback from folks in Bayview Hunters Point which now has a cumulative rate of 1,000.96 cases per 10,000 residents, while the Mission's cumulative rate is 672.9 cases per 10,000 residents. For the week ending March 19, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City remained at 29 or 3.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. As of March 26, Asians have received 32 percent of the total vaccine doses delivered, Whites 30.4 percent, Latinx 11.3 percent, Mult-racials 9.6 percent and Blacks 3.4 percent. Native Americans and Pacific Islanders have received approximately .5 percent of all doses delivered. Of the doses administered by SFDPH, Asians have received 38.8 percent, Latinx 25.3 percent, Multi-racials, 7.3 percent and Blacks 7.2 percent. Pacific Islanders and Native Americans have received less than ,5 percent of the doses administered by SFDPH. On Februray 1, SF hospitals had 43 ICU patients; on March 1, there were 20 and today there are 5. No transfers again. For the week ending March 25, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 21 percent. During that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On March 25, Covid patients occupied 1.75 percent of available ICU beds and 2.2 percent of Acute Care beds. DPH says capacity for a potential surge is at 100 percent in ICU and 94 percent in Acute Care. According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 5 Covid patients and 73 percent ICU occupancy. Across the Mission CPMC had 6 Covid patients and 76 percent ICU occupancy. Since December Latinx positivity rates have fallen more than 80 percent while the testing rate for Latinx residents (per 1,000 residents) has dropped about 60 percent. Following a trend which became evident towards the end of Februrary, as of March 24, Whites have the highest percentage of the month's new cases with 34 percent, while Latinx had 25 percent, Asians 9 percent, Blacks 7 percent and Mult-racials 3 percent, Pacific Islanders 2 percent and Native Americans 0 new cases. Based on 463 deaths, San Francisco's case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.3 percent. With "true infections" (all infections not only those reported), the infection fatality rate (IFR) would be approximately .44 percent. Mission Local covers San Francisco from the vantage point of the Mission, a neighborhood with all of the promise and problems of a major city. You can support Mission Local here.